Dismal Days of a Fur Market

Every morning running the trapline, I’d roll up on many of my sets and find raccoon fairly regular. Each trap location that I’d scouted and set on was producing every few days bringing in consistent fur for the trapline as a whole. Except one particular spot that I’d check on every morning only to find nothing. Often times that dog proof trap I had placed there would be empty to top it all off. The marshmellow I would place on top would be gone and even the Hansen’s dry DP bait in the bottom of the trap would be completely cleaned out. I was getting tired of feeding the mice so well and guessed that somewhere there must be a Guinness book world record holder fat mouse living in the area waiting for me to reload the trap.

Raccoon sign was there however, and as much as I thought about moving that unproductive trap, my stubbornness to finally succeed there kept me from giving up. Set locations not far away on ridgelines to the South and to the West were frequently catching coon, but this location was below those hills, near a culvert and a creek backed up by a beaver dam downstream. Finally one morning I walked down the embankment to check the trap as I did every morning, expecting to see an empty trap when to my astonishment, there was a masked bandit looking right at me and caught by the ankle by my most unproductive trap. That one coon fetched $28 when I delivered him to the fur buyer a couple weeks later and leaving that trap proved to be a good decision.

That was November 2013, the last time we’ve witnessed prices anywhere near that mark. Since then, it’s been a continual downward spiral of fur prices to the point now that you won’t even be able to sell some raccoon this upcoming season. With such a grim outlook it disheartens even lifelong dedicated trappers from going after raccoon this season. Many who do it for the love of it will still make their attempts to catch a few however and hopefully it won’t discourage trappers from also showing a younger generation how it’s done. But those just in it for the money won’t be out there this year. The plain truth is that it’s going to take a significant amount of time for the markets to recover and especially the market for raccoon.

Worldwide the market moves but at a stagnant, slow pace right now. We sit in what has become a bit of the perfect storm for everyone in the fur supply chain. Trappers get little for their furs, local dealers take on huge risks of buying with profit margins thin, large fur houses sit on hundreds of thousands of pelts in cold storage, the auction houses get more selective and survive on smaller profit and even garment makers slow production because current finished goods aren’t moving in the stores around the world.

What would it take to get things going upward again? The answer is: a lot. While there have been periods when markets have turned around quickly in the past, this present situation requires several factors to happen to gain traction. First off is cold weather in China and Russia and predictions this fall call for a colder winter there if meteorologists are right. Make no mistake about it, Russia and China drive the world fur market and account for a large percentage of fur garment sales. A colder winter would help sell garments on the store shelves and increase demand for new garment production to replace. The next problem is the value of the Russian ruble, inflation and oil prices in that region. Regardless of whether demand of fur is high or low, right now the ability of Russian buyers to buy from other countries such as China with a devalued ruble limits the purchasing power and volume of fur goods coming into Russia. High inflation, and low oil prices are hitting the Russian people hard and garment sales within that country have slowed significantly. Sanctions from around the world continue against Russia for it’s aggressive military actions and as long as those sanctions keep oil prices from Russia low we can expect the world’s most dominant fur market driving country to continue to hold up the worldwide market. As Russia goes so does China. Being the world’s leader in fur garment making, China will continue to be a slow buyer as long as they aren’t exporting a high volume of garments back to Russian consumers. A colder winter in Northern China can greatly increase the amount of fur China buys and hope is not lost at all that a wealthy and much more healthy Chinese economy could stimulate movement this winter. Fur is trendy in China and women see it as fashionable.

Now let’s take a look at supply and demand. Even if and when pelts begin to move and sell, there’s a strong likelihood that we still won’t see large gains in prices for a while. Let’s say that the price of raccoon moves from a $3 average to an $8 average. That’s good news and all but at that point is when you will begin to see a high number of skins hit the auctions that have been held over from the last couple of years. Right now it’s likely that there could be up to a million pelts in cold storage around the world from a local trapper’s freezer all the way up to large fur house’s cold storage facilities. Speculators that have bought $3 coon in high volume with hopes of selling them for $8 for example, will now begin to move those pelts and it will likely stagnate any further upward trend in prices that we might have seen. At least for a while, until all of the backed up inventory is sold and at this point, those who have been sitting on all of those furs for this long will be anxious to get rid of them at the first opportunity for even the slimmest of profits. Or at least that’s the hope.

So you can see that the supply is high and even when things begin to break loose it’ll likely take a while until we might see $20 coon again. Once that backload of raccoon, mink, beaver and muskrat fur begins to push through and as long as things are stable around the word with China and Russia at that time is when we’ll likely see prices climb again. It’s been stated that as many 40-60% of fur harvesters have quit in the last couple of years and even those who have remained trapping have drastically decreased the amount of fur that they are putting up. Supply is slowing on the backend as far as new fur coming in and when we get back to a demand for current year fur that is when we’ll likely see prices go to levels that drive everyone out there once again to set traps. Will that be this year? No, it won’t. Will it be next year or the year after that? Only time will tell. Some industry leaders have said we could climb out next year while others claim we remain two or three years away from strong prices.

Iowa Fur Price Predictions
If you are trapping Raccoon this year just know that you are likely going to be doing it for fun. Some local country buyers won’t be buying at all. Raccoon sales at the Fur Harvesters auction in Helsinki, Finland this last March went largely unsold. North American Fur Auctions annual spring sale last May had 100% clearance, which is optimistic but prices ranged from $2 -$5. Forget selling carcass goods, as the only marketable skins will be prime finished large coon. Delay setting your coon traps until you know fur is prime if you’re in it to make a few bucks this season. If you’re able to put together a collection of prime 3XL coon with good color skinned and stretched, you’ll find a buyer even if you’re disappointed with the price.

Some say that they’ll be a market for Muskrat this season. Their beliefs in this stem from an over-saturated mink market. Ranched mink production is down and as a result muskrat skins might move in the $1-$2 range with better goods at $3. This is dependant on speculators buying up rats to put into storage in hopes of turning a profit once the market rebounds with a shortage of mink possible down the road in the long term. All of this is speculative of course and we’ll see when the time comes but expect muskrat prices to struggle again this year.

Beaver prices will again struggle and some say that they may be as dismal as raccoon. Locally I think you’ll find more buyers for beaver pelts even if prices are extremely low. Beaver inventory by each of the previously mentioned auctions this spring went partially sold. Extra-heavy dark prime beaver could see decent prices but there is a lot of unsold inventory out there and beaver is more expensive to tan and dress making less of a profit margin currently. On a brighter note, fewer beavers being trapped and sold in the last couple of years could bring on a demand in castoreum. Castoreum, taken from the castor sacs of mature beaver is used and processed in lure making and a shortage just may be on the horizon which would no doubt increase beaver trapping and castoreum prices.

Mink prices will remain low and with the high volume of ranched mink available garment makers will continue to select only those premium dark brown coats that are so readily available from farmed mink suppliers. Wild mink prices will struggle from $2 – $6 until that inventory is dispersed.
Skunk and possum will be low with possum not even being sellable by local buyers this year. Possum went mostly unsold at international auction and skunk went cheap. Skunk are largely a non-target species and with the lack of trapping this fall and last, it’s possible to see skunk prices rise in the near future, especially with the big-bodied long striped stinky specimens possibly fetching $5-$10.

You’ll be able to move Red Fox although price will vary. Prime semi-heavy Iowa fox could see $12-$20 if we’re optimistic but flatter goods will drop to $10 and even below for early ones. Even in bad years red fox always move even if it isn’t for the price we remember a couple of decades ago.

If you’re a well-rounded trapper intent at making a profit your focus this year is going to be in predators. Specifically, the Coyote. Coyote will be the one critter that should retain some of its traditional value at the fur buyer this season. Demand for coyote fur in the trim-trade remains strong and lighter colored heavier skins will sell relatively well according to most predictions. Don’t be surprised to see the market languish a bit early on as buyers will be hesitant to spend too much on skins that they fear may not sell as well later on as predications have indicated. Especially for pelts that aren’t yet prime. If buyers overpay early on there could be a slim profit later if expectations don’t meet demand. A prime semi-heavy pale skin will hopefully fetch you between $18-$25 this season and if there is a shortage of extra-heavy pelts from the west we could see buyers turn to our Midwestern coyotes as a resource bringing that price up a tick more for good finished fur.
Bobcat will be down again this year but stay similar to last year. Expect average Iowa cats to fetch $35-$65 while a heavily spotted large male with a wide lighter underbelly can go for a great price better than that. If you’re fortunate enough to catch one of these large cats shop around for the best price. Sending cat fur to auction, especially well put-up prime wide-bellied fur to auction may gain you surprising results.

Otter and Badger may also remain fairly decent. With beaver trapping down, we could see a rise in otter prices in the near future, but as of now expect $15-$25 averages with a few exceptions. Badger sold at international spring auctions for around $23 but a large, pale wide body might fetch you a bit more. Average badger here will remain around $10-$20 however.

Overall, it’s a dismal outlook for the near future. If I can offer any advice it’s to trap when fur is prime this season. Do it for the enjoyment of it. Try a new style of trapping you never have before or try catching a critter you haven’t targeted prior to this year. Teach a young person how to trap. We are at the very bottom now and hopefully we can only improve from here. The big question is when will that happen?