2024 Rut Forecast

2024 Rut Forecast

By Aaron McKinney

As bowhunters, we live for the month of November! The rut, though unpredictable, kicks up and our chances of seeing elusive bucks goes up dramatically as they start becoming more active in the daylight hours. The whitetail rut is a complex and dynamic process, and the timing can vary slightly from year to year depending on factors like weather and whether you’ve had a lot of CWD or EHD in your area. However, deer are still photoperiodic animals whose biology is influenced by the daylight hours, and we can begin to somewhat predict patterns as we work our way through November. Here’s a general breakdown of what you might expect during November in the best bowhunting state. So, plan your vacation (or rutcation) wisely, and get out and enjoy the hunt.

Week 1
During the first week of November, we start to see bucks cruising. They’re ready, they know the rut is coming up, so they go and check scrapes and cruise with their nose to the ground trying to detect a doe that is starting to smell “good”, on that is approaching estrus. As the rut heats up, bucks begin actively seeking does. This is a great time to focus on areas where does are likely to congregate, such as food plots, bedding areas, and along trails. Bucks also begin to leave their bedding areas earlier and stay active a little more during shooting hours. They’re covering a lot of ground, so sitting in a stand that is near bedding, or in a well-traveled area is always a good spot. Bucks are traveling a lot of area at the time. If you know of a particular farm that has a lot of does, it seems like the bucks are usually interested in checking these areas.

During the first week of November, I like to begin to hunt the timber areas, and set up along scrapes. You will see bucks checking the scrapes often. A lot of Iowans’ favorite days lie within the first 2 weeks of November. If you’re planning your hunt, keep an eye on approaching cold fronts and spend some days out in your stand.

Week 2
The second week of November is action packed, and is my favorite time to get into the stand. From the Iowa DNR, we’ve learned that the bell curve of the amount of does coming into peak estrus begins to peak between the second and third week of November. I like to be slightly ahead of the peak and take advantage of the number of deer you can see cruising. You will see bucks run up and check does to see if they’re ready. You will also see some chasing. If a doe is in estrus, bucks can be relentless. They’ll chase and stick close to a doe trying to wait her out. You will see a lot of aggressive activity, fighting, grunting, growling, bucks charging off other bucks. Once a doe is in estrus, you might see a parade of bucks following behind her.

During the second week, calling is very effective. Use your grunts, your rattles, and scents. Breeding activity intensifies as bucks become more aggressive in their pursuit of does. Focus on areas with recent scrapes and rubs, as these are signs of buck activity. For the second week, I like to stick to the timber and sit at the intersection of two well-traveled deer paths. They’re up, they’re moving during all times of the day, and by sitting on a well-traveled area, or pinch point, you increase your chances of seeing a deer.

Week 3
During the third week, the amount of does in estrus are peaking. If you do all-day sits, pack a bag, a lunch and sit all day. I’ve noticed some good movement around 11:00, so getting down too early could cost you an opportunity at your target buck. Generally, this is the peak of breeding activity, with bucks chasing and breeding does relentlessly. Expect heavy rutting behavior, such as grunting, snorting, and chasing. You will also see bucks looking for other does. You might see them “locked down” with a doe. A mature buck will try and keep her somewhere until she can be bred. This might be in a draw, a field edge, or a fence row.

Week 4
During the last week of November, we notice a dramatic change. Bucks who previously threw caution to the wind, begin to regain their senses. They become more wary of human intrusion, and more wary of other bucks. Breeding activity begins to decline, but bucks may still be chasing does, as mentioned, does do not all come into estrus on the exact same day, so we can see younger does, still coming into estrus. There is still some breeding activity, but the bulk of the activity we saw during the first three weeks has subsided. Both does and bucks begin to recover from breeding and may become more focused on feeding. Studies have shown that a buck can lose over 20% of his weight during the rut. The deer need to recover, especially as the snow will be falling soon. This is a good time to hunt over your food plots again.

November Tips
During November, anything can happen, and it can happen quickly. The best thing you can do is to is to get out and hunt as much as you can. Scouting is still effective. If you see a buck following a doe in a certain, it is definitely possible that they will be in the same area the next day. They, of course, could move on, but there is also a good chance he is trying to keep her there and keep other bucks away. Remember, these are just general guidelines, and the timing of the rut can vary depending on local conditions. The best way to maximize your hunting success is to stay informed about the specific conditions in your area and adapt your strategies accordingly.